Biden Admin Signals Shifting Support For Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia, But Few Details

Last updated on August 7th, 2024 at 04:29 pm

President Joe Biden’s administration this week signaled new support for Ukrainian forces using U.S.-donated weapons in strikes inside Russia’s borders, but it’s offered few public details about the new rules of engagement.

Amid a renewed Russian offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern border region of Kharkiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has increasingly called on his backers in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to loosen the rules of engagement and allow Ukrainian forces to strike across the border into Russia. Leaders of some NATO nations have begun to sign-off on such strikes, but the Biden administration had waivered on the idea. That appeared to change on Friday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with other NATO counterparts in Prague.

“Over the past few weeks, Ukraine came to us and asked for the authorization to use weapons that we’re providing to defend against this aggression, including against Russian forces that are massing on the Russian side of the border and then attacking into Ukraine,” Blinken told reporters at a press conference in Prague.

Blinken went on to say Biden has gradually considered those Ukrainian requests and now has “approved the use of our weapons for that purpose.”

While Blinken’s remarks signaled a shift in favor of allowing Ukrainian forces to use U.S.-supplied weapons to address threats “on the Russian side of the border,” he and the rest of the Biden administration have offered few additional details about the rules of engagement Ukrainian forces will need to follow as they use such U.S. weapons inside Russia’s territory.

The United States and other NATO allies have furnished the Zelenskyy government with an escalating series of military capabilities and sign-offs throughout the open Russian-Ukrainian conflict over the past two years. While the Western allies have gradually increased their support for the Zelenskyy government, their actions come with an inherent risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin to see NATO as a direct belligerent in the conflict. A direct conflict between Russia and NATO entails multiple nuclear-armed nations fighting at odds with one another.

Where U.S. support for Ukraine in the early months of the war consisted of supplying man-portable anti-tank launchers like the FGM-148 Javelin, useful for stopping Russian armored vehicles advancing into Ukraine, later rounds of support have included longer-range weapons like the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System; a tactical ballistic missile system with enough range to potentially strike well within Russia’s borders.

While Ukrainian forces possess weapons with the range to strike deep inside Russia, the Biden administration has indicated—at least publicly—that these weapons won’t be striking deep inside Russian territory. Though Ukrainian forces have not used NATO-supplied long-ranged missiles to strike inside Russian borders, it bears noting that they already have used shorter-ranged cannon and rocket artillery, and loitering munition drones in limited cross-border raids that have hit areas like Belgorod.

Ukraine’s artillery and explosive-laden drones have their inherent limits, and Russian forces have adapted to this dynamic by launching munitions at a standoff distance inside their own borders, that then fly into Ukraine, providing effective fire support in their recent Kharkiv offensive that Ukrainian forces have struggled to counter. Zelenskyy’s renewed requests for relaxing the rules of engagement for strikes inside Russian territory is a reaction to this latest Russian adaptation in fire support tactics.

Blinken’s latest comments now leave open questions about what Ukrainian forces can and cannot do on the Russian side of the border, and the Biden administration’s latest calculus for avoiding a wider nuclear-armed conflict. Thus far, no other Biden administration figures has offered a more direct, explicit comment about the new rules of engagement.

FreeBase News reached out to the U.S. State Department for further clarification about the new rules of engagement. The response it received was an emailed statement, on background, attributable to a State Department spokesperson.

“The President recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” the spokesperson said. “Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of ATACMS or long range strikes inside of Russia has not changed.”

Other NATO leaders have laid out their position on Ukraine striking inside Russia’s borders more explicitly.

On Monday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s right to self-defense “includes the right to also attack legitimate military targets inside Russia.”

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he believes Ukrainian forces should be able to strike missile launch sites within Russia’s borders that are firing missiles into Ukraine, but not other targets inside Russia’s borders.

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson also recently told the Swedish newspaper Hallandsposten that “Ukraine has the right to defend itself through combat actions directed at the opponent’s territory as long as the combat actions comply with the laws of war.”

And leaders of other NATO-member nations have been clear about the risks they see in allowing Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike inside Russian territory.

This week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni distanced herself from the NATO secretary general, saying he should show “more prudence” when talking about the conflict.  Deputy Italian Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said even more explicitly that Stoltenberg’s comments risk a third world war and that the NATO official should apologize for his recent remarks or resign.

Sitting for an interview on Friday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said his fellow NATO allies endorsing Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are bringing the alliance closer to direct conflict with Russia. Orban said rather than remaining a purely defensive arrangement, NATO leaders were dragging the alliance closer to a “cataclysm”—a dynamic he likened to a firefighter attempting to put out a fire with a flamethrower.

While touring Uzbekistan on Tuesday, Putin offered his own warnings about the heightened risks NATO member nations invite by encouraging Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. The Russian president said, all NATO members “should be fully aware of what’s at stake.” He said many of the European NATO members in particular “are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory.” Putin went on to add, “If Europe were to face those serious consequences, what will the United States do, considering our strategic arms parity?”